After the e-car euphoria in 2018, the values for 2019 indicate signs of fatigue: The share of e-cars in the global market as a whole rose from 2.2% (2018) to 2.5 % (2019). The development becomes even clearer when looking at the different regions. China was previously the driver of electrification, but in 2019 the first signs of the slowdown could be seen. The electric range increased by 64%, but this value is significantly below the annual growth rate (2013–2019) of 113%. In the USA, too, the results fall short of expectations: at 20%, the increase was significantly lower than in the years 2013 to 2019 (48%).
While European manufacturers had a long time to catch up compared to Chinese or North American competitors, the range is now increasing significantly. Within one year (2018/2019), the same value in Europe increased significantly by 110% and was even above the global average of 61% (from 416 million kilometers to almost 670 million kilometers). Europe made an important contribution to increasing the global electrical range for 2019 as a whole. This was also due to the technological development of the vehicles themselves and the increasing proportion of battery-powered vehicles in contrast to plug-in hybrids. The average range of the available electric cars increased significantly: at the end of 2018, this was still 221 kilometers,
This is how the current AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index summarizes 2019 as a whole. In the study, the globally active consulting company determines the electric range on a quarterly basis, i.e. the sum of the range of all e-cars sold by country and car manufacturer.
“There is no stopping alternative drive models. However, it is already becoming apparent that supply bottlenecks for core components and start-up delays are slowing down the growth of electrification due to technical complexity. For a positive development in the near future, it must also be emphasized that key influencing factors such as the availability of public and private charging stations as well as the standardization of the charging infrastructure and billing are overdue. We also hope that the funding for electric vehicles will have a positive effect, ”says Dr. Elmar Kades, Head of Automotive & Industrials and Managing Director at AlixPartners and one of the initiators of the Automotive Electrification Index.
IN FOCUS: THE DEVELOPMENT Q4 / 2019
To better classify the annual development, the study authors from AlixPartners provide further insights into the analysis of the fourth quarter of 2019. After a significant decline in the third quarter, the global electrification index rose by 20% by the end of the year and was thus at the level of Q2 / 2019. In a direct quarterly comparison, the electrical range increased from 155 million kilometers (Q3) to 185 million kilometers (Q4). This corresponds to a slight increase in the electric car market share from 2.5% to 2.7%. The average range per electric car remained relatively stable at 296 kilometers. The sales of the Stromer was around 623,600 units.
SLOWDOWN IN THE CHINESE AND NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS
The effects of the changed subsidy policy in China continued to be felt in Q4, which had led to a significant decline in e-range in Q3. Higher investments in car sharing and car pooling in China partially offset this development in Q4. The United States recorded a significantly lower result than the previous year at –14% (Q4 / 2018 – Q4 / 2019). In contrast, Europe was able to continue on its growth path. Quarterly, the electric range increased by 20% due to the good sales of Teslas Model 3 and Audis e-tron. On a twelve month basis, Europe outperformed all other regions.
E-RANGE RANKING BY COUNTRY: CHINA WITH THE MOST KILOMETERS
Due to the advanced degree of electrification and the size of the country, China was able to claim first place in the global e-range ranking (91 million kilometers) in Q4 / 2019. The USA followed in second place with a clear gap of 17% (31 million kilometers). The Netherlands are pushing Norway out of the top 3 and doing very well with a range increase of 15 million kilometers (8% of the global range). Germany made it into the top 5 again in Q4 / 2019 with a range of just under six million E-kilometers (3.2% of the global range).
E RANGE RANKING BY MANUFACTURER
Based on the worldwide electrical range sold, Tesla was able to defend first place and claim almost a third (31.4%) in Q4 / 2019. Chinese manufacturer BAIC is in second place with 7.4%, ahead of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi with 6.5% in third place. Volkswagen made the biggest jump from 13th place in Q4 / 2018 to fifth place in Q4 / 2019 and a sold electrical range of 5.8%. Compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year, this improved the most for Volkswagen (+ 203%), followed by Tesla (+ 49%).
“The ranking makes it clear: there is movement in the market. But it also shows that development is proceeding relatively slowly and Tesla will not simply lose its supremacy. OEMs will continue to come under pressure in 2020. The new legislation and the associated limited CO 2 emissions from new cars from 2021 threaten high fines. A potential billion dollar charge can have fatal consequences for companies. After all, these costs add up to investments in new technologies, ”said Dr. Hannes Weckmann, Director at AlixPartners and co-author of the study.
E RANGE RANKING ACCORDING TO CAR MODELS
In Q4 / 2019, Tesla was able to defend first place in the ranking of the best-selling electric car models with its Model 3. However, Tesla had to relinquish second and third place (Q4 / 2018: Model S in second place and Model X in third place). In second place in Q4 / 2019 was the electric car subsidiary BJEV from the Chinese manufacturer BAIC with the compact sedans EU260 and EU300 (5.6% of the electric range). In third place was GAC Trumpchi's model Aion S (4.6%). Nissan claimed fourth place with the Leaf model (3.2%). With the electric SUV Audi e-tron Quattro, the first German model landed in seventh place (2.5%), BMW improved from twelfth to tenth place with the i3 (2.0%).
“The goal must be that driving becomes climate neutral. This means further investments in technological developments: batteries with a higher power density, more hydrogen-powered vehicles and also optimized combustion engines, possibly with synthetic fuels. In 30 years, two out of three cars will drive on the road either electrically or with hydrogen. Manufacturers who actively shape change will emerge as winners. It is already clear today that not all car manufacturers and suppliers will make it, ”summarizes Kades.
ABOUT THE ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX
The AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index measures the progress of electrification in the global automotive industry on a quarterly basis and determines the electrical range of the vehicles sold according to the formula "Number of electrical vehicles sold" * "Electrical range without the support of an internal combustion engine".
The following vehicle types are included in the calculations of the AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index: battery-operated electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV); Vehicles with hybrid drive (HEV) without a plug-in option are excluded. The analysis is based solely on publicly available data, especially from IHS Markit and EV-volumes (global sales of "light vehicles" and electric vehicles). The electrical ranges of the vehicles used in the calculations are based on data from EV volumes and published information from the automobile manufacturers.
Sourced from Alix Partners